MISO Tweaks 4th and Newest MTEP Future
CARMEL, Ind. — MISO has made two changes to its newest future scenario in its annual Transmission Expansion Plan, adding more renewables and possible nuclear retirements to capture distributed energy trends and distinguish them from a continued fleet future.
The RTO bumped up the renewable target on its distributed and emerging technologies future from 15% to 20% of total MISO energy by 2032, policy studies engineer Matt Ellis told stakeholders at the May 17 Planning Advisory Committee meeting. He said MISO plans to model a more aggressive solar maturity curve for the future in response to stakeholder requests for more solar additions in the model. The RTO will assume that in 15 years, two-thirds of all solar is distributed and located near the top 20 load buses in each local balancing authority. MISO’s three other MTEP 18 futures assume one-third of all solar is distributed.
Shelly-Ann Maye, representing Midwest Power Transmission Arkansas, asked how MISO settled on 20% renewable penetration in the fourth future.
Ellis explained that it examined projects lined up in the interconnection queue. “Renewable targets vary state by state, and [at] a bare minimum, our models will capture that, and that’s about 10% in the limited fleet change [future]. Historically, though, we find that renewables go beyond those renewable standards.”
Citing DTE Energy’s recent announcement that it intends to reduce its carbon output by 80% by 2040, ITC Holdings’ David Grover asked if MISO considered more aggressive low-carbon generation addition trends in the futures.
“If you look at goals that are announced and goals that are out there from large utilities, what’s the base? Are you starting from the base [fleet] or from what utilities have said that they’re going to do?” Grover asked.
Ellis said carbon-reduction modeling begins from the current fleet and carbon emission levels. “As these press releases come out, this is something we can look at,” Ellis said.
MISO will also now assume a top end of 5 GW of nuclear retirements in the distributed future, through the assumption that nuclear licenses renewals will not be granted unless the plant had a “recent and significant update.” It is the only future that will model possible nuclear retirements; the other three futures assume that the zero-emission reactors will continue running.
Some stakeholders asked if MISO considered that unprofitable nuclear plants will continue to be offered subsidies through state legislation. “I think it’s implicitly assumed, not explicitly assumed. That’s why we’re modeling anywhere from zero to 5 GW” of retirements, Ellis said.
Stakeholders had asked how the distributed and emerging technologies future differed from MISO’s continued fleet change, which originally predicted similar renewable penetrations, demand-side additions and coal generation retirements. (See MISO Introduces Distributed Energy Future for 2018 Tx Planning.) Ellis said the siting of resources is the main difference between the two futures. “It’s more distributed, more local to load.”
The distributed and emerging technologies future also includes the addition of 2 GW of storage by 2032 and the assumption that 25% of all new car sales by 2032 are electric vehicles — driving up MISO load by 60 TWh in 2032.
Though the MTEP 18 futures are still technically a proposal, and stakeholders have until June 1 to provide comments, Ellis said he does not expect details to change much before the final future definitions are revealed at the June PAC meeting. MISO will also discuss MTEP 18 futures weighting at the June meeting, with the RTO unveiling some weighting “process reforms,” he said.
At the January PAC meeting, some stakeholders, especially those hailing from MISO South, argued that the Trump administration’s distaste for carbon regulations should influence the RTO’s weighting process. As a result, MISO placed less emphasis on its accelerated alternative technologies future in the South region’s market congestion planning study. (See MISO Changes MTEP Futures Weighting for South.)
MISO: Non-Tx Alternatives in Tx Planning Process by Late Summer
MISO is moving to include non-transmission alternatives in Business Practices Manual 020, which governs transmission planning procedures.
Adviser Matt Tackett said staff will not adopt the BPM language until the PAC makes an official recommendation, expected at the June meeting. He added that stakeholders had not suggested any significant changes in the last round of feedback.
The revision dictates that “both transmission and non-transmission alternatives to resolve transmission issues will be considered on a comparable basis” in MTEP cycles. MISO said non-transmission alternatives can include “contracted demand response, new or upgraded generators with executed interconnection agreements and other non-transmission assets (e.g., energy storage not classified as a transmission asset, etc.).” (See “Rules on Non-Transmission Alternatives Ready for PAC Review,” MISO Planning Subcommittee Briefs.)
MISO’s process for considering non-transmission alternatives involves:
- an evaluation of the transmission need; flagging constraints that cannot be adequately addressed by non-transmission alternatives;
- conducting analyses to find the best bus location or amounts of injections or withdrawals of real or reactive power that would resolve the issue;
- determining minimum project requirements; and
- performing a final analysis to determine if a proposed non-transmission project solves the problem.
MISO expects the updated BPM to become effective Aug. 1.
MISO Fields Another Expedited Review Request
MISO has received a new expedited project review request to connect load from a northern Michigan steel mill to a member ahead of the MTEP timetable.
Wolverine Power Supply Cooperative plans to connect 24.4 MW of industrial load from a nearby steel mill, a blend of induction furnace and plant auxiliary system load, to its Advance-Van Tyle 138-kV transmission line at a cost of $6.15 million.
The cooperative estimates that transmission structures need to be ordered by the end of August to meet a promised March 1, 2018, in-service date, making the regularly scheduled December Board of Directors decision date for MTEP too late, Manager of Transmission Expansion Planning Thompson Adu said.
The request is the fourth expedited request this year coming from Michigan market participants. MISO approved two of the three previous requests. (See MISO Endorses 2 Michigan Projects for Expedited Review.)
Adu said MISO has also received another expedited project review request from a Michigan market participant, as well as two requests from companies in MISO South, but they have not yet been posted publicly, as the RTO is still reviewing the requests.
— Amanda Durish Cook