Monday, February 18, 2019

Early MISO PRA Data Show Little Change

By Amanda Durish Cook

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO last week posted draft 2019/20 Planning Resource Auction data that are virtually unchanged from last year’s early predictions.

The RTO released the data as it prepares for its usual spring resource adequacy activities, including organizing its annual resource adequacy survey.

MISO is currently forecasting a 121.6-GW systemwide coincident peak and 125.3-GW total zonal coincident peak for the planning period. It also estimates an approximate 134.4-GW planning reserve margin requirement and a combined 152.6 GW in local resource requirements. The estimates are subject to change, but they don’t materially stray from last year’s preliminary data reflecting low demand but declining margins. (See MISO RASC Briefs: Little Change to Capacity Forecasts.)

Tim Bachus | © RTO Insider

Speaking at a Jan. 16 Resource Adequacy Subcommittee meeting, Tim Bachus, MISO capacity market administration analyst, said he doesn’t expect much change to the data through March, when auction numbers will be finalized.

This year’s auction conduct threshold, calculated as 10% of cost of new entry, ranges from $22 to $25/MW-day depending on zone, Independent Market Monitor staffer Michael Chiasson said.

Late last year, MISO said it would require a 16.8% planning reserve margin requirement for June 2019 to May 2020. At the time, it said it had nearly 154 GW of installed capacity on hand to meet the requirement.

Meanwhile, the RTO will send voluntary surveys to market participants by late March as part of its annual resource adequacy survey with the Organization of MISO States. Completed surveys are due back April 15. Results of OMS-MISO surveys are typically released in June.

“The last decade has seen a lot of changes in our fleet mix … and this survey is an important tool to continue dialogue on the change,” MISO resource adequacy team member Stuart Hansen said of the survey.

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