Tuesday, March 19, 2019

MISO Expects ‘Modest’ Spring Risk

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO foresees a “modest probability” it will declare a systemwide maximum generation event this spring.

The RTO last week said such a scenario would culminate from both high loads and forced outages, and it stressed that the need for emergency procedures will be “impacted by the availability of resources,” such as wind generation, capacity imports, stranded capacity and load-modifying resources.

MISO predicts a 101-GW peak this spring and says it has 150 GW of resources, including load-modifying resources, available to cover demand and outages. Last spring, total outages in the RTO in April neared 50 GW, the highest level in the last five years.

NOAA spring prediction | NOAA, MISO

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts average temperatures in MISO Midwest and higher than normal temperatures in MISO South during the season.

Speaking at a March 7 Market Subcommittee meeting, Manager of Probabilistic Resource Studies Ryan Westphal said the forecast indicates a good chance of a “normal spring for the north part of the footprint.”

MISO has projected it has a probable 103.3 GW worth of generation capacity in March, 95.2 GW in April and 105.1 GW in May.

Westphal said the RTO expects May to have the highest chance of systemwide maximum generation event procedures.

MISO’s all-time record spring peak occurred last year on May 29 when unseasonably hot weather prompted a 107-GW peak load. (See “Volatile Spring,” MISO Players Probe Causes of Increasing Emergencies.)

Meanwhile, in preparation for summer, MISO will hold readiness drills for members to review emergency operation procedures on April 18, April 25, May 2, May 9, May 16 and May 23. It will also hold its annual summer readiness workshop on April 23.

— Amanda Durish Cook

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