In New England, increasing winter reliability concerns are driving questions about how long the region’s aging fleet of oil-fired power plants can, or should, remain on the system.

ISO-NE’s probabilistic modeling indicates there is minimal risk of shortfall in the upcoming winter, COO Vamsi Chadalavada told the NEPOOL Participants Committee.

After receiving positive feedback from stakeholders, ISO-NE plans to proceed with its proposal for a quantitative threshold to determine an acceptable level of energy shortfall risk for the region.

ISO-NE’s regional network service rate is set to decrease by about 1% in 2026, dropping from $185.28/kW-year in 2025 to $183.71/kW-year in 2026.

ISO-NE plans to cut its winter peak load projection for 2033 by 7.2% and its summer peak projection by 1.8%, ISO-NE told the NEPOOL Reliability Committee.

ISO-NE’s regional energy shortfall threshold will rely on a pair of metrics intended to capture the intensity and duration of energy shortfall risks in extreme weather scenarios, the RTO told the NEPOOL Reliability Committee.

ISO-NE is working to add the capability to model preemptive actions to its probabilistic energy adequacy tool, the RTO told the NEPOOL stakeholders.

The RTO will next year focus on capacity auction reforms, establishing a regional energy shortfall threshold, complying with FERC orders 1920 and 2023, and implementing market and technology improvements.

ISO-NE outlined its current thinking on a potential Regional Energy Shortfall Threshold at the NEPOOL Reliability Committee.