The West must build or upgrade 12,600 miles of transmission at a cost of about $60 billion to meet the region’s forecast 30% increase in peak demand and other needs by 2035, according to the Western Transmission Expansion Coalition’s 10-year outlook.
The anticipated 30% increase in peak electric demand — from 168 GW in 2024 to 219 GW in 2035 — is more than three times greater than what the region has experienced over the past decade, according to WestTEC’s 10-year outlook for the Western transmission system released Feb. 4.
WestTEC, an initiative of the Western Power Pool (WPP), anticipates a 35% increase in energy consumption and a 71% increase in generation capacity over the same period.
Meanwhile, transmission expansion is expected to increase from approximately 98,000 miles of 230-kV transmission lines to about 111,400 miles in 2035, or 14%, according to the 10-year outlook.
“I’m not saying that transmission has to keep up one-to-one with load growth,” Keegan Moyer, a partner at Energy Strategies and consultant for WestTEC, said during a presentation in connection with the release of the report. “I don’t think that’s necessarily true. But we definitively know that it can’t grow by half. And it can’t grow at a third of the rate that we’re adding in generation. This study proves that.”
Data centers and “the electrification of everything in our lives” are driving the forecast increase in peak demand, according to Moyer.
WestTEC has put together a portfolio of planned and newly identified transmission expansion projects that would meet this forecast demand through 2035. The total portfolio is estimated to add or upgrade 12,600 miles of high-voltage transmission at a cost of about $60 billion.
The report notes that the $60 billion is manageable when considering that the annualized cost of the projects is “eight times less than the cost of generation that must be added over the same time horizon and represents only 2.5% of today’s average retail electric price in the West.”
The portfolio includes 73 planned projects that total about 9,400 miles at a cost of $46.6 billion, about 20% of which are already under or close to starting construction.
“Reconductoring and rebuild projects represent about 10% of planned transmission in terms of both line miles and costs,” according to the report. “If these sponsors do not complete these in-flight projects, the total transmission gap will grow, and needs identified in this study will not be met.”
WestTEC identified an additional 3,300 miles of upgrades needed to address reliability, deliverability and efficiency concerns.
The group said the portfolio would enable the Western grid to address the 30% growth in electricity demand and reduce the risk of outages by addressing more than 75 “steady-state power flow violations on the high-voltage system that would occur but for the construction of upgrades identified by WestTEC.”
The portfolio would cut power production costs by $500 million/year, with grid congestion costs and generation curtailments falling by 20% and 17%, respectively.
“These metrics are inherently conservative and do not reflect the full extent of savings and efficiencies that could occur,” according to the report.
The identified projects could allow an additional 10 GW of power to move across key regional interfaces during critical periods, lowering shortage risks and reserve requirements, per the report.
‘Admirable Achievement’
Several projects under the Bonneville Power Administration’s $5 billion Grid Expansion and Reinforcement Portfolio are listed in the WestTEC study.
For example, the Lower Columbia to Nevada-Oregon Border project is on the list. The project is aimed at improving connectivity from the lower Columbia region to the Nevada-Oregon border with 500-kV transmission lines and a new substation near the border. (See BPA Provides More Details on $5B Tx Projects.)
The effort has a preliminary estimated cost of $1.9 billion with an estimated completion by 2035.
BPA has been a “proud partner working with the Western Power Pool to support the creation of WestTEC,” BPA spokesperson Kevin Wingert told RTO Insider. “We are one of many participants across the Western utility landscape to participate in WestTEC’s 10-year horizon report.”
“We believe this first-of-its kind, West-wide study identifies necessary transmission infrastructure additions needed to enhance grid reliability, increase efficiency and facilitate the integration of new resources,” Wingert added. “We appreciate the broad range of regional stakeholders in identifying emerging transmission needs across the Western Interconnection. This study provides actionable recommendations for the implementation of new transmission that will address congestion and unlock interregional transfer capabilities.”
Several CAISO projects are similarly included in the list of planned projects in the WestTEC study, such as the 260-mile Humboldt-to-Collinsville 500-kV line. The line is part of CAISO’s 2023/24 transmission planning process. (See FERC OKs Abandoned Plant Incentive for Calif. Offshore Wind Tx Developer.)
“The ISO is very supportive of a coordinated West-wide transmission plan for the next 10 and 20 years, and looks forward to future West-wide analysis and planning, including the 20-year Westside transmission plan,” Jeffrey Billinton, director of transmission infrastructure planning at CAISO, said in a statement. “The 10-year plan affirms the planning and approvals that are already underway in California and the West, and sets the table for more interregional transmission development in the next two decades.”
Brian Turner, senior director at Advanced Energy United, called the WestTEC study an “admirable achievement.”
“These upgrades don’t just address the increasing reliability risks in the region, they address the very important need for transmission to connect and deliver the massive new power the West needs for economic development, demonstrating that transmission is a critical component of our nation’s need for speed to power,” Turner said in an email to RTO Insider.
The WestTEC effort, jointly facilitated by WPP and WECC, addresses long-term interregional transmission needs across the Western Interconnection. The release of the 10-year planning horizon report comes after 18 months of work, Moyer noted. (See WestTEC Targets Early 2026 for Release of 10-year Tx Outlook.)
A 20-year horizon report is slated for release later in 2026.
The main objective of WestTEC is to create an “actionable” transmission study by conducting integrated planning analysis across the Western Interconnection.
The study horizons focus on evaluating transmission requirements in 2035 and 2045, with the goal of prioritizing “flexible and scalable transmission solutions for nearer-term needs to help better position the system for efficient long-run expansion,” the study plan says.