TORONTO — The Ontario government’s ambitious energy plan could prove costly to ratepayers if load growth stalls or new nuclear plants produce cost overruns, A.J. Goulding, president of London Economics International, said at the Ontario Energy Conference in a keynote speech Sept. 29.
“I worry a bit when words like ‘superpower’ or ‘energy dominance’ are used,” said Goulding, referring to the goals laid out in the Ministry of Energy and Mines’ Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) in June. “They suggest a shift of focus from cost/benefit, risk and reward.”
The IEP calls for expanding natural gas and nuclear generation, including four small modular nuclear reactors totaling 1,200 MW and a new 4,800-MW nuclear plant at the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station. The plan is based on a projected 75% increase in electric demand by 2050. (See Ontario Integrated Energy Plan Boosts Gas, Nukes.)
Despite its name, Goulding said, the ministry’s IEP is a “political document” rather than the investment blueprint that utilities file with regulators. “This is not a criticism. The IEP is a helpful statement of the government’s intent and informs the deliberation of Ontario’s quasi-independent agencies,” said Goulding, whose speech was titled “Skating fast enough or over our skis?”
Goulding praised the IEP’s “all-of-the-above” approach to generation as a way to balance affordability and environmental impact and said the province’s proposed expansion of nuclear power “makes sense from a reliability and emissions perspective, not to mention jobs and land use.”
Load Growth Projections
But he questioned the ministry’s projection that load growth will increase by three-quarters — 3% per year — over the next 25 years.
“Looking at successive 25-year periods since 1960, we find the most recent that averaged 3% load growth ended in 1995,” he said. “Only two individual years since 1997 have exceeded 3% lower growth.
“Per capita electricity consumption in Ontario peaked in 1988 and has fallen 36% since,” he continued. “We keep finding new ways to not use electricity, and it’s not clear that electrification will fully reverse these trends.”
A recession, or the impact of the U.S. government’s tariffs, also could dampen load growth. If growth falls short of projections, customers could face steep rate hikes to pay for infrastructure additions, he said.
New Nuclear Plants
Goulding raised concern over Ontario’s plan to build the first SMRs in the Group of Seven. The province hopes they will be a boon for economic development as other jurisdictions seek to tap its experience.
“While Ontario’s bet on first-mover advantages on small modular nuclear reactors … may pay off, it also carries with it first-of-a-kind” risk, he said, citing research showing nuclear projects have averaged cost overruns of over 120%.
Although he acknowledged that “recent experience in Ontario has been more positive with refurbishment of legacy designs,” he said it will take more than three SMRs to reach “N-of-a-kind” cost reductions.
“Ontario is not large enough to absorb sufficient reactors to reach that point on its own. Arguably, all of Canada may not be [large enough], making global partnerships critical,” he said.
The magnitude of Ontario’s planned spending on energy infrastructure leaves it vulnerable to “continuity risk” — the possibility that a large capital project is suspended following a change in government.
“Around the world, governments appear increasingly inclined to pivot from their predecessors’ policies, regardless of underlying merit,” he said. “This increases costs for projects that ultimately proceed and decreases investor confidence. Continuity risk is difficult to hedge. … and increases with project size. Large-scale nuclear investments could be particularly vulnerable to this risk.”
Granular Additions
Goulding said scenario analysis and maintaining optionality are central to addressing forecast risk.
“New-build plans need to be tested against multiple outcomes. The optimal plan should perform well across several resources that can be added in more granular increments,” he said. “An [Ontario Energy Board] process in which regulated entities detail IEP rate impacts and the extent of engagement with First Nations would provide both transparency and discipline as the province considers next steps.”
He also called for increased use of demand response to reduce the need for peaking plants. “Now, the challenge with demand response,” he joked, “is that it doesn’t make for a nice ribbon cutting.”
CCUS Utility
Goulding noted that the government’s continued commitment to natural gas generation is tied to development of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). “If we believe carbon capture and storage requires scale, perhaps we need a carbon capture utility to catalyze CCUS investment,” he said. “CCUS helps to legitimize the all-of-the-above strategy. It is also an area worthy of federal government support.”
Conclusion
“We can best manage the risks in the IEP through appropriate time-limited consultation, thoughtful scenario analysis, diversification of ownership and resource type, expanding the role of demand response and creating a foundation for CCUS, while maintaining a focus on affordability,” he concluded. “Policymakers need to take willingness to pay into account first as plans are being formulated, rather than after the fact, while also acknowledging that some rate increases are unavoidable.”