Vistra’s acquisition of Cogentrix Public Utilities would increase market power and could undermine competition in ISO-NE and PJM, market monitors for the RTOs argued in comments filed April 7 (EC26-63).
The ISO-NE Internal Market Monitor urged FERC to require more analysis and consider behavioral conditions to address potential issues, while the PJM Independent Market Monitor said it opposes the transaction in the absence of mitigation measures.
The acquisition would add 1,625 MW to Vistra’s 3,567-MW portfolio in New England, the ISO-NE IMM noted. The combined total would equal about 16% of installed capacity in New England. In PJM, the acquisition would increase Vistra’s portfolio from 14,270 MW to 17,098 MW, the PJM IMM wrote.
“The transaction would result in a material increase in market concentration and structural market power, particularly within the dispatchable generation segment that is crucial to meeting the system’s energy and reserve requirements,” the ISO-NE IMM wrote.
The concentration of ownership would not fail FERC’s competitive analysis screen in either RTO. Vistra wrote in its application that Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) analyses indicated no screening violations and no potential competitive issues.
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HHI threshold analyses are based on the sum of squared market shares of all participants. While FERC has long relied on HHI tests to evaluate market power, both market monitors argued that HHI screening is not adequate.
The ISO-NE IMM wrote that “the HHI and Competitive Analysis Screen do not provide a robust competitive analysis for the impact of the proposed transaction on the ISO-NE markets and the potential for the exercise of market power by the combined applicants.”
The inclusion of small-scale and intermittent resources in the HHI analysis “masks a heavy concentration of resources with sizeable market shares,” the market monitor wrote.
It said its pivotal supplier test and residual supply index metrics indicate the acquisition would create a portfolio that is pivotal “in a substantial share of real-time intervals, including the majority of high-load hours.”
It also wrote that initial analysis indicates the combined portfolio could have “both the ability and the incentive to profitably raise prices,” adding that existing market power mitigation measures may not be adequate to prevent this behavior.
The PJM IMM expressed similar concerns to those included in its recent comments about Talen Energy’s proposed acquisition of 2.5 GW of generation from Energy Capital Partners. (See Monitor Warns Talen Acquisition Will Increase PJM Market Concentration.)
The market monitor wrote that Vistra is a pivotal supplier in PJM’s energy and capacity markets and the acquisition would increase the company’s means and motive to exert market power.
It also reiterated its concerns about a broader concentration of generation ownership in PJM amid “extremely tight” market conditions.
“The current need for new generating capacity in PJM is an opportunity for increased competition and new entry,” Monitoring Analytics wrote. “Instead, ownership of existing generation is being consolidated in a small group of owners.”
New England does not face as tight market conditions, but growing demand, coupled with the region’s struggles to add new capacity, could create resource adequacy issues starting in the mid-2030s. ISO-NE forecasts the region’s reserve margin declining from about 17% in 2026 to 8% in 2034.
The ISO-NE IMM asked FERC to establish a hearing or settlement proceeding to enable more in-depth analysis and consider more requirements to mitigate potential issues.